Independent research

SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES · NASDAQ: SPCX

What is SPCX
really worth?

Price tracking is easy. Understanding the assumptions inside an approximately $1.8 trillion valuation is the useful part.

Build your valuation ↘View the snapshot
SPCXNASDAQ
Market feed
$134.00-$5.65  (-4.05%)

TradingView market feed ↗ · Exchange data may be delayed

Blue-bar closing history · through Aug 20, 2026$134.00
IPO $135
Day range$130.39 — $137.88
Your buy target$41.00
IPO price$135.00
Post-IPO high$225.64
Market cap$1.76TEstimated at fallback price
TTM revenue$23.0BUpdated from the Aug. 4 10-Q
Price / sales76.6xPrice-driven daily estimate
Diluted shares13.17BModel assumption

IPO SHAREHOLDER LOCKUPS · AS OF AUG 20, 2026

When can locked-up shareholders sell?

Next scheduled trancheSep 9, 2026

About 911 million shares became eligible on August 6, and the next scheduled 7% tranche became eligible on August 20. The next scheduled release is another 7% tranche on September 9.

MOST LOCKED SHARES · 180-DAY GROUPAug 6 · eligible

The scheduled 20% tranche is now eligible. The conditional extra 10% did not unlock because SPCX did not close at or above $175.50 on five of the ten trading days ending August 4.

  1. +7%
  2. +7%
  3. +7%
  4. +7%
  5. +7% · next market session Oct 26
  6. +28%
  7. All remaining shares
SELECT INVESTORS, OFFICERS & DIRECTORSAfter Q4 ’26 results

The extended group starts with a 20% release after the second full trading day following Q4 results, then releases in stages.

  1. +10%
  2. +20%
  3. +10%
  4. +20% · weekend
  5. All remaining shares
ELON MUSK · FOUNDER LOCKUPJun 12, 2027

Musk’s shares have no early-release provision. The 366-day restriction runs through June 12; because that is a Saturday, the first ordinary public-market selling session would be Monday, June 14, 2027.

Early releaseNone

These are transfer-eligibility dates, not promises that holders will sell. Company waivers, permitted transfers, trading windows, securities laws, and future filing amendments can change practical sale timing.

Final prospectus · Lock-up agreements ↗Q2 2026 Form 10-Q ↗

INTERACTIVE MODEL · NOT A PRICE TARGET

Turn the story into numbers.

Choose the revenue, valuation multiple, and future share count you believe. The model does the rest.

$72B
$35B$120B
28x
8x45x
13.17B
12.0B16.0B
Implied 2030 value per share$153+14.2% vs. snapshot
Implied equity value$2.02T
Revenue assumption$72B
Valuation multiple28x

A transparent scenario calculator—not a recommendation or forecast.

Scenario2030 revenueEV / salesImplied value
Bear$50B18x$68
Your case$72B28x$153
Bull$100B36x$273

THE OPERATING CASE

Three drivers to watch.

SPCX is not one business. Its value is a blend of connectivity, launch economics, public-sector demand, and long-dated optionality.

01

Connectivity is the engine

Q2 connectivity revenue reached $4.29B, up 66% year over year, while Starlink subscribers reached 12 million.

02

Starship must turn repeatable

The July flight restored momentum. The next proof point is a reliable launch-and-catch cadence that changes capacity and unit economics.

03

$47.46B contracted backlog

Remaining performance obligations provide demand visibility, but timing, mix, and execution still determine the value of that backlog.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MODEL

What could break the thesis?

Valuation work is incomplete until the assumptions have an explicit failure case.

  1. 01

    At roughly 76x TTM sales, the current valuation still prices in years of exceptional growth.

  2. 02

    H1 2026 produced a $4.82B net loss and $28.48B of property-and-equipment purchases.

  3. 03

    About 911M shares became eligible on August 6, with more lockup tranches still ahead.

  4. 04

    Launch execution, regulation, governance, and related-party complexity can all reset expectations quickly.